Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 0.151685 0.179603 0.212412 0.254130 0.306218 0.369702 4.538504e-01
2025-07-27 0.123130 0.159101 0.206224 0.273712 0.369954 0.505568 7.172922e-01
2025-08-03 0.100929 0.140413 0.197222 0.287739 0.433931 0.671455 1.111099e+00
2025-08-10 0.081132 0.120161 0.181042 0.287740 0.481174 0.842127 1.638422e+00
2025-08-17 0.064659 0.100973 0.161692 0.277486 0.510929 1.008496 2.321317e+00
2025-08-24 0.054837 0.090183 0.153499 0.285116 0.581998 1.315085 3.704614e+00
2025-08-31 0.046965 0.080936 0.145756 0.291918 0.659873 1.716475 6.066062e+00
2025-09-07 0.040841 0.073490 0.139586 0.300755 0.753412 2.275806 1.044771e+01
2025-09-14 0.035814 0.067037 0.133799 0.309135 0.857461 3.028999 1.877942e+01
2025-09-21 0.030853 0.059644 0.124059 0.304210 0.923131 3.771809 3.181373e+01
2025-09-28 0.024858 0.048896 0.104013 0.263597 0.841733 3.747792 3.847829e+01
2025-10-05 0.022324 0.045252 0.100129 0.269095 0.943208 4.946801 7.655928e+01
2025-10-12 0.020365 0.042675 0.098692 0.283710 1.110870 7.165033 2.021561e+02
2025-10-19 0.018716 0.040497 0.097801 0.300818 1.322118 10.751194 6.884464e+02
2025-10-26 0.017068 0.037987 0.095361 0.312018 1.530337 15.770689 2.965437e+03
2025-11-02 0.015244 0.034673 0.089714 0.308349 1.655212 21.018752 1.420030e+04
2025-11-09 0.013447 0.031102 0.082385 0.294356 1.699877 25.824264 8.171021e+04
2025-11-16 0.012337 0.029170 0.079720 0.300163 1.918771 38.043003 9.645360e+06
2025-11-23 0.011353 0.027401 0.077127 0.305400 2.159395 57.015603 NaN
2025-11-30 0.010526 0.025923 0.075136 0.313041 2.459079 89.972804 NaN
2025-12-07 0.009787 0.024566 0.073212 0.320409 2.796252 146.472137 NaN
2025-12-14 0.008947 0.022766 0.069229 0.314118 2.968104 209.115477 NaN
2025-12-21 0.007737 0.019680 0.059813 0.271131 2.556416 178.613355 NaN